WP3: Designing IA systems interconnecting national, regional, local models and strategies

WP Leader: E. Pisoni, UNIBS

Objectives

- Design an Integrated Assessment Systems (IAS) framework, based on the information collected during the review process, for different levels of data availability, policy-maker requirements, and existing modelling tools.

- Provide the architecture for an IA System harmonizing regional and local plans with policies defined by national scale tools.

Description of work

The IAS architecture will include a set of input databases, a set of decision-modelling tools, output databases and post-processing modules to support policy makers, a series of methodologies to assess the sensitivity of effective policies to the input uncertainty and complementary methodologies (e.g. source apportionment). The work package is organized into four tasks: 

Task 3.1 Defining the structure of the input database

The input databases include:

- Emission inventories and projections;

- Structural, technical and non-technical measures (application rates, reduction efficiencies, costs);

- Emission-concentration relationships (air quality simulation models);

- Dose-response functions, external costs.

Task 3.2 Defining the Decision modelling framework

This task will try to define the various routes to decision-making and to identify their strengths and weaknesses, finding the most efficient one for a given situation.

The decision problem can be the assessment of different emission scenarios (what-if approach) or it can be formalized as the minimization of an objective function. Such function can assess one or more planning objectives processing source-receptor models, reduction measure and external cost databases, taking into account the specific emission, (often non linear) chemical  and meteorological features of a domain.

Task 3.3 Policy focused output

The objective of this task is to make sure that IAS output meet the needs of the stakeholders/policy makers to provide an efficient support to the decision making process.

The output of an IAS are the efficient policies, the related estimation of the objectives and the outcome from the post processing of these results, including for instance the evaluation of other AQ & health indicators, not explicitly included in the decision problem; the quantification of other impacts; the measure of the trade-off between alternative efficient policies.

Task 3.4 Tools for sensitivity analysis and complementary methodologies 

The sensitivity of the effective policies will be assessed with respect to the uncertainty of the inputs, with respect to different problem formulations, to optimization algorithms, to planning objectives, to the emission-concentration relationships, or to spatial scales. To measure the sensitivity of the effective policies, a methodology is required and will be defined based on available expertise within the Consortium.